SMCI Stock Analysis-2024.11.3 As we know, this stock halfed during last two months due to fake financial and delisting and DOJ investigation. My gut feeling is that this company would not be bancrupt, but it may be delisted from Nasdaq for quite a while. So I am thinking to bet to buy the stock at low price and bet it would rebound.First, i took a look at the short sell report by hindenburg research, which is very detailed about potential problems of the company.https://hindenburgresearch.com/smci/This kind of opportunity is hard to handle. Although the company has previously audited income statement, but it is skeptical how reliable this income statement would be. I did take a look at its income statement. Assuming their income statement is oversated. I did some adjustment to its revenue and net income. Then I carry out their financial forecast and did DCF model to calculate the firm's total equity value. Then I deducted the value by potential fines from SEC and other US department(assuming total 200million USD fines). I come to the theoritical long term value for SMCI is about USD68-99 per share. Currently its share is trading around USD18. So the company may be undervalued.However, given the potential risk of fines and lawsuits and lost of reputation, I would put a buy order for this company below current price, at USD10 level. Let's see how trading would playout.Continue:Market developments:{timeline}{timeline-item color="#19be6b"}2024.10.30 Ernst & Young resigned as auditor of SMCI, SMIC down by 32% to USD33{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#ed4014"}2024.10.31 Fear of delisting by Nasdap, investor continue to dump SMCI, SMIC down by 12% to USD29{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#19be6b"}2024.11.1 Tianfeng Securities said SMCI may face the worst result to be delisted, SMIC down by 11% to USD26{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#ed4014"}2024.11.6 SMCI Q2 25 guideline missed expectation, SMCI down by 18% to USD22{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#19be6b"}2024.11.13 SMCI postponed submit 10-Q report due to lack of auditor and said need more time to find auditor. SMCI down by 6% to USD20.33{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#ed4014"}2024.11.15 SMCI promised it will find neew qualified auditor and prevent from delist. SMIC up by 3% to USD18.58{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#19be6b"}2024.11.18 SMCI find proper auditor as BDO, SMCI up by  16% to USD21.54{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#ed4014"}2024.11.19 SMCI filed compliance plan to Nasdaq, SMCI up by 31% to USD28.27 {/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#19be6b"}2024.12.02 Independent auditing committee issued their investigation result and claimed their didn't find any wrongdoing. SMCI up by 28% to USD42.{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#ed4014"}2024.12.6 Nadaq permited SMCI to continue its trading till 2025 February, SMCI up by 6% to USD43{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#19be6b"}2024.12.9 There is rumors said SMCI maybe dumped by Nadaq 100 index and incurs massive sales by index funds. SMCI down by 8% to USD40.5 (bought){/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#ed4014"}2024.12.11 SMCI CEO David Liang said he is confident that company will not be delisted by Nasdaq. SMCI down by 5% to USD38 {/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#19be6b"}2024.12.16 SMCI was kicked out by Nadaq 100 index and incurs massive sales by index funds. SMCI down by 8% to USD33{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#19be6b"}2025.2.12 SMCI said the new auditor BDO is fully engaged in completing the Audit process. SMCI is confident that they will fill the 10k and 10Q on Feb 25, 2025 on time. SMCI is also managed to issue a new convertable bond for 700mn USD. SMCI up by 7.33% to USD41.44 in after trading period.{/timeline-item}{timeline-item color="#ed4014"}TBC{/timeline-item}{/timeline}My investment decision:2024.11.13:Company said they would need more time to find auditor. I keep my purchasing price at USD102024.11.19: Given it submitted the compliance plan to Nasdaq, I would raise the purchasing price to USD18 level.The market price is USD28.72024.12.16: Given SMCI is kicked out by Nasdaq 100 index and there are potential liquidity issue for SMCI, I would decrease the purchasing price to USD29.5. The marekt price is USD33.442025.2.12 Given SMCI is able to issue new convertable bond, I would raise the purchasing price to USD30. The market price is about USD41.44

iron ore Dalian future prices analysis-大连铁矿石期货价格规律研究-2024.8.31 Future price is the expectation of physical commodity price in future date.People use different methods to come up with forecasted prices. Similar to CME forecast, people could use Econometric Model, Economic Indicators, Checkinglist Approach. Based on observation, physical commodity price is mainly decided by the supply and demand imbalance. Iron ore supply is mainly decided by iron ore mining companies, while iron ore demand is mainly decided by steel factories. On the supply side, global iron ore production is about 2.7billion MT in 2021, and global iron ore export is about 1.6billion MT. Australia and Brazil accounts for about 50% of total production and 77% of total export. which On the demand side, global iron ore consumption is about 2.6 billion MT in 2021 and global iron ore import is about 1.6bilion MT. China account for 60% total iron ore consumption and 73% of iron ore imports.Total iron ore supply volume could be measured by two ways: 1.miners' total production; 2. miners' production plus miners' inventory plus cargoes on the sea plus inventory on ports plus inventory in steel mill. Followings are detailed data regarding these two ways to evaluating total iron ore supply.These data are based on 4 big producers(Vale, BHP, Rio, FMG)'s anual report. These are lagging indicators for iron ore total supply, since it is about 4 month later than the real production. There are also leading indicator on iron ore production, that is capex of producers.Based on these capex, we can calculate the incremental iron ore production volume for coming years and hence calculate the total iron ore suply volume in coming years. After we have the global iron ore supply numbers, we will calcuate the iron ore demands numbers in the similar way. Since there is no direct iron ore demands numbers, we need to calculate the iron ore demands numbers from pig iron or crude steel production volumes and reverse the manufacturing process to get the iron ore numbers. For the incremental iron ore demands numbers, we could use incremental world steel capacity increase to calculate. However, there is no incremental steel capacity numbers available neither. So I have to estimate the world crude steel production volume based on historical data as well as on global GDP growth number. When I looked into the global gpd growth data from IMF and WorldBank, I didn't find correlation between global GDP growth rate and global crude steel production change rates. So I used historical average crude steel production growth rate in last 5 years to predict the future global crude steel production. Then we derive the global iron ore demands from global steel production volumes.After we have both iron ore production and demands forecast, we can calculate the iron ore production and demands gap as well as the potential iron ore end stocks for each year. Based on the iron ore supply and demands gap and seasonality of iron ore price, we can do raw iron ore price forecast for year as well as for month.These are the basic theory. Based on above theory, we can try to evaluate how the current future market price comparing with the mighty physical price.If we try to make some profit, we will need to design our trading plan.The trading plan including two dimension: price and volume. We will need to decide what volume will be build at what price.

Sugar_future_analysis_白糖期货研究 The sugar future prices are affected by four main factors:1. physical supply and demand gapfinancial supply and demand gappeople's expectationcapital availabilityThe relationship among prices and these four factors are:Future price = a + b1 physical_sd_gap + b2 financial_sd_gap + b3 expectation + b4 capital_avail + errorThe historical CZCE whitesugar chart are as following:Chart1 CZCE whitesugar active future priceThe historical ICE no.11 raw sugar chart are as following:Chart2 ICE no.11 raw sugar active future priceThese are the basic theory. Based on above theory, we can try to evaluate how the current future market price comparing with the mighty physical price. If we try to make some profit, we will need to design our trading plan.The trading plan including two dimension: price and volume. We will need to decide what volume will be build at what price. 

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2024.4.7 Global environmnet：Politics:US: internally Biden is fighting with Trump for 6 months later elections. Internationally, US focus on isolate China and Russia. China: Economy:US:Culture:EducationMedicare:Big events:Trend:Cycles:Major markets:

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2024.3.24 Global environments:Big events:1.Terrorist attack in Russia:the attack in concert killed more than 140 people and injured many seems the new ignition of war era in Far East. If Russia carries out retaliation, the Russia-Ukraine war would upgrade. And investment on war would increase and production would decrease . If Russia don't retaliation, Putin may lost his control and Russia would face internal chaos, Russia production would reduce. However, Russia would end the war with Ukraine. Either way, it seems energy price would be push higher. It seems Russia would choose to reliate, so demands from Russia would be high and production in Russia would reduce. The follow-up quesiton woudl be Trends:Cycles:Major markets: