Sugar_future_analysis_白糖期货研究

The sugar future prices are affected by four main factors:

1. physical supply and demand gap

2. financial supply and demand gap
3. people's expectation
4. capital availability

The relationship among prices and these four factors are:

Future price = a + b1 physical_sd_gap + b2 financial_sd_gap + b3 expectation + b4 capital_avail + error

The historical CZCE whitesugar chart are as following:
Chart1 CZCE whitesugar active future price

The historical ICE no.11 raw sugar chart are as following:
Chart2 ICE no.11 raw sugar active future price

These are the basic theory. Based on above theory, we can try to evaluate how the current future market price comparing with the mighty physical price.

If we try to make some profit, we will need to design our trading plan.

The trading plan including two dimension: price and volume. We will need to decide what volume will be build at what price.