Daily commentary-2022.5.31 1.Covid:As Beijing and Shanghai work & life back to normal, I saw jump starts of economic activities in Beijing today. People are running fast to get the lost business back. Total new covid case no. increased due to new cases in Beijing. But no more lockdown expected due to economic pressure. Also many cities will cancel current free covid-test service and will charge fees due to big cost burden.2.Monkeypox:Total monkeypox case no. is still growing.3.Russia and Ukraine:Russia continue to push forward in Donbas area of Severodonetsk specifically. US Biden said US will not provide Rocket system which may enable Ukraine to attack Russia homeland. So not sure what kind of Rocket will be provide by US to Ukraine. EU agreed on the sanction against Russia to cut Russia crude purchase by 75%, which is about USD150million per day. Russia haven't announced counter sanction terms to EU yet. EU plan to ban 90% of its current imported Russian oil.I think it is may be the time for Russia, Ukraine and NATO to carry out the talk to end this war now, given the huge costs to all parties as well as to the world.4.Food crisis:After India banned wheat exports, more than 18 other countries also announced food exports restrictions. This will make African and Middle East facing bigger food shortage.5.Energy crisis:As EU banned 75% of its Russia crude oil import, Russia will have to sell these oil cheap to somewhere. I suggest China take these oils and pay RMB to support Chinese economy. This will also benefit the whole world.6.Electricity shortage:Japan said they may face electricity shortage this summer and run full clock to find solution for this.7.US economy:Fed Chairman Powell met Biden in Oval Office today, Biden said he will support Fed to curb the inflation. Market is excepting 50 and 50 bps rate hike in June/July and Sep/Oct. US 10 yr yield moved up today. US house price hit a new high as its Mar price increase 21.2% yoy.8.China economy:More fiscal stimulus are announced today and this will boost China economy for sure. China May PMI stood at 48.4 which is higher than 42.7 in April.9.Climate change:Scientist found new component in air recently and this maybe due to pollution.

Daily commentary-2022.5.30 As China lost about 2 months of work and life due to covid lockdown, we need to work and live harder to catch up with the world. However, as we are facing cumulating recession risk, we need to prepare for this as well.Followings are the key issues we need to pay attention to:1.Covid:As Beijing and Shanghai lifted the lockdown for covid today, it is said people are gathering to celebrate in some communities in Shanghai. I expect covid case may breakout again in some area, but lockdowns will not come back due to huge economic cost and life burden.Total new covid case no. in China 2.Monkeypox:Total monkeypox case no. continue to grow as more than 23 countries reported more than 250 cases. Countries are running to stock up smallpox vaccines to prevent for potential monkeypox breakout.3.Russia and Ukraine:Russia reports that it push forward its military action in more cities in Ukraine and it is open to a peace talk with Ukraine. Based on previous conversation, if Ukraine could give up some of its land and declare independent from NATO, Russia may agree to cease fire.4.Food crisis:Agriculture products pricesAfter wheat, sugar, rice, we may face more agriculture products shortage given the hot summer. What make the situation worse is that more fund are betting on agriculture price increase this year and push up the agricultural products prices.5.Energy crisis:We are fully relay on OPEC and US oil and gas now given sanction on Russia. Since high energy price will benefit OPEC and US, we are not sure when the energy crisis would be over yet.6.US economy:US spending still robust and expect US economy will keep grow.7.China economy:As the covid curb eased in Beijing and Shanghai, we will see economy rebound in June. This will also lead to higher CPI.8.Vietnam economy:Vietnam retail sales increased by 22.6% in May yoy. Comparing with 11.1% decrease in China, it shows Vietnam picks more orders from China.

Daily commentary-2022.5.29 1.Covid:China is removing lockdown in Beijing and Shanghai. Work and life will return to normal tomorrow. This will boost GDP back to growth track for June. Total new covid case no. continue to drop in China. People linked the total new case no. drop with decline payment for covid test by Chinese social security fund. It may be a typical case of externality that when covid test company can't get free lunch from government, there is no incentive for them to report(create) new covid case to get more orders.China local total new covid case no.Externality2.Monkeypox:Global monkeypox no. continue to increase. I was astonished by the speed of increasing case no. since the monkeypox is mainly affected man-man sexual partner at the moment. Based on current spread out speed, there is a possibility for monkeypox turn into a global pandemic. All governments need to prepare vaccine for this.3.Russia and Ukraine:US is sending long range rocket system to Ukraine for defending Russia. If this happen, it will make Russian military more difficult to fully control Donbus area. This military action already becomes a long term action for Russia any way and cost them more than USD100billion so far.US Long Range Rocket System4.Food crisis:There is no sign Ukraine's agriculture production will back to normal soon. Hotter weather make the situation worse. On top, more investors are running into market to bet on higher food shortage, and this will put up food price further. United nation said there would be 1 billion people live in poverty this year.5.Energy crisis:Musk is right that unless we fully master the universe mining ability, we will run out of energy for sure. Although US and Europe is try to easing the energy shortage by release reserve, oil and gas prices rise steadily. Due to supply shock, we don't see the supply shortage easing this year. Combine with hot summer, not sure how many people may die because of short of electricity. The only good news is that crypto price declined more than 50% from top and this would reduce the energy using by crypto industry.6.US economy:US consumer spending beat expectation and economy show strong resilience. This cheered up stock market, but would also help the Fed to decide next rate hike soon. However, given high energy and labor cost, there is a long way to go for Fed to reduce inflation from 7%level to 2% level although they don't have to get it done in one year.7.Vietnam economy:Vietnam achieved the biggest ever retail sales increase of 22.6% yoy because of strong economy growth thanks to China lockdown. According to international economy theory, the industry output will keep growing after production chain move to that place.8.China economy:Because of covid lockdown, production escape to other countries, more global competition and geopolitical tension, China is facing huge economic pressure now. At this moment, more fiscal and monetary stimulus is expected from government. We saw detailed stimulus plan just came out for Shanghai. This would drive stock and commodity prices up tomorrow.{lamp/}

Daily commentary-2022.5.28 1.Covid:Shanghai and Beijing are easing lockdown policy by allow residents back to work and reopen of shopping malls. This is due to GDP lost pressure as well as high direct cost associated to covid test and quarantine. I expect people life will be fully back to normal by mid June in Shanghai and Beijing as new covid cases no.continue to drop.2.Monkeypox:Total infection no. is growing to over 200 cases globally reported by WHO. WHO is running to stockup small pox vaccine to prevent for outbreakof monkeypox pandemic. However, according to Murphy's Law, it is really hard to stop bad thing happen.3.Food crisis:After wheat shortage by about 2-3milion MT and sugar export bans,Thailand and Vietnam is planing for rice price increase for more than 10%. India may join the action as well. Global rice demand is around 518millino MT this year and there is already about 4million MT supply gap this year.After grains price go up, I expect meat price will go up as well. In short, the food shortage situation is getting worse.4.Energy crisis:As Europe is walking away from Russian oil and gas, Europe is import more from US and push US gas price to new high in recent years. This year, scientist expect we will have a hotter summer, meaning more energywould be consumed. So we may see energy price further increase and putmore pressure to current global economy.5.US economy:Strong consumer spending showed US economy's strong resilence. Economist still holding full year GDP growth expectation at 3.5% for 2022.6.China economy:As JP Morgan lower its forecast for Chinese GDP growth to 3.7%. China only advances US GDP growth by 0.2%. The covid expect to cost China about 2 trillion RMB GDP lost. It is huge. The lesson China should learnfrom this would be keep moving on.

Daily commentary-2022.5.27 1.Covid:Beijing is doing 7 consencutive covid test to seal the potential success of covid zero strategy.Overall new covid cased no. continue to drop in China.2.Monkeypox:Governments are still running to stock up vaccines to prevent outbreak of Monkeypox in large scale. Medicine companies who have vaccines will have boosted revenues.3.Russia and Ukraine:Russia claimed a success in Donbas area with Ukrainian troops withdraw from that area. However, it still seems a long term military conflict from current situation.3.Food crisis:As natural gas price continues to fly, fertilizer price are still increasing andmake the food crisis worse.4.Energy crisis:Russia are exporting crude from mid or small trading companies and this is a way to ease current energy shortage. However, as we are entering into aircondition season, energy price will stay highfor this summer.5.Climate change:Some experts said high energy prices are slowing down our progress of meet carbon zero.6.US economy:April US consumer spending was up 0.9% mom beat expectation. Stocks move high on back of optimistic spending trend. Average salary was up by 0.4% in April.7.China economy:There are rumors that one more Chinese real estate developer-Greenland is facing potential default. This is a sign China economy is still under great pressure now and waiting for more detailed fiscal and monetary stimulus to boost economy.{lamp/}