1.Covid:
China is removing lockdown in Beijing and Shanghai. Work and life will return to normal tomorrow. This will boost GDP back to growth track for June. Total new covid case no. continue to drop in China. People linked the total new case no. drop with decline payment for covid test by Chinese social security fund. It may be a typical case of externality that when covid test company can't get free lunch from government, there is no incentive for them to report(create) new covid case to get more orders.
China local total new covid case no.
Externality
2.Monkeypox:
Global monkeypox no. continue to increase. I was astonished by the speed of increasing case no. since the monkeypox is mainly affected man-man sexual partner at the moment. Based on current spread out speed, there is a possibility for monkeypox turn into a global pandemic. All governments need to prepare vaccine for this.
3.Russia and Ukraine:
US is sending long range rocket system to Ukraine for defending Russia. If this happen, it will make Russian military more difficult to fully control Donbus area. This military action already becomes a long term action for Russia any way and cost them more than USD100billion so far.
US Long Range Rocket System
4.Food crisis:
There is no sign Ukraine's agriculture production will back to normal soon. Hotter weather make the situation worse. On top, more investors are running into market to bet on higher food shortage, and this will put up food price further. United nation said there would be 1 billion people live in poverty this year.
5.Energy crisis:
Musk is right that unless we fully master the universe mining ability, we will run out of energy for sure. Although US and Europe is try to easing the energy shortage by release reserve, oil and gas prices rise steadily. Due to supply shock, we don't see the supply shortage easing this year. Combine with hot summer, not sure how many people may die because of short of electricity. The only good news is that crypto price declined more than 50% from top and this would reduce the energy using by crypto industry.
6.US economy:
US consumer spending beat expectation and economy show strong resilience. This cheered up stock market, but would also help the Fed to decide next rate hike soon. However, given high energy and labor cost, there is a long way to go for Fed to reduce inflation from 7%level to 2% level although they don't have to get it done in one year.
7.Vietnam economy:
Vietnam achieved the biggest ever retail sales increase of 22.6% yoy because of strong economy growth thanks to China lockdown. According to international economy theory, the industry output will keep growing after production chain move to that place.
8.China economy:
Because of covid lockdown, production escape to other countries, more global competition and geopolitical tension, China is facing huge economic pressure now. At this moment, more fiscal and monetary stimulus is expected from government. We saw detailed stimulus plan just came out for Shanghai. This would drive stock and commodity prices up tomorrow.
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