When will Chinese stock rebound?-每日见闻-Daily Newsletter-2022.7.8 China economy is bottomed.However, when will stock rebound?Stock price mainly driven by four factors:1.risk adjusted required return;2.company expected net profit;3.people's expectation on making money;4.totay money supply in equity market;In order to judge when stock may risk or fall, we need to review above factors, we should be able to get a better view onstock market situations.1.Risk adjusted required return: If money is expesive and market is risky, people will ask for higher return on equity investment to compensate the risk they afforded. If money is cheap and market is not risky, people are ok with lower return on equity investment and potentailly more money will come to equity market to play;Regarding money price, the normal parameter is interest rate. Interest rate is set by central bank of a country.There are also other indicators people use to evaluate the cost of money, these indicators include intra bank interest rate.When money get into stock market, it will boost the equity price.

Will China save US high inflation by increasing exports to US?-每日见闻-Daily commentary-2022.7.5 The short answer is yes. Lower price Chinese goods would help us lower its inflation. However, the effect of this on US inflation is limited given current structural misplacement of supply chain.The reaction of cheap Chinese cargo enters into US market would like:1. helped US lower domestic goods; 2. China purchases more material and push up commodities prices; 3. more shipping demands push up shipping cost; 4. Chinese goods prices in US start to rise after several month;So we can see the lift of US tariff on eliminate US inflation is limited to several months. However, global supply chain will not be recovered shortly due to lack of capacity investment.US need to:1. invest more on supply chain; 2. help Russia and Ukraine cease fire soon.China need to:1. drop current covid control; 2.send money to residents; 3.spend more money on supply chain;

Will current covid outbreak hit Chinese economy again?-每日见闻-Daily commentary-2022.7.4 Will current covid outbreak hit Chinese economy again?New Covid case no. rebounded in China after about two weeks quiet period. Big cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, reacted immediately with alarms of tightening their covid checking frequence requirement to prevent spreadout of covid in these cities. Will this covid outbreak hit Chinese economy again? The short answer is no. Last lockdown cost China about 1.4 trillion RMB GDP, and China can't afford another such hit.What would Chinese government do to fight this covid outbreak? Local government will ask people to stick with 72hrs covid test requirement to enter into public area. This will continue hurt cosumer spending forsure.Given China is still trying to achieve 5.5% GDP growth this year, where would this growth come from? As we expected before, the best way forChina to achieve its growth target is for government to send money to consumer and stimulate consumer spending. US government is trying its best to cool down its inflation rate, since May CPI is at 40 yrs high. However, the current inflation is structural pushed inflation. So the better way for US to curb inflation is tolower tariff from China and buy more cheap energy from other countriesbesides increase interest rate.Big events:1.Covid:China total new covid case no. is 38 today, which is still at high range. This would lead to continue requirement of 72hrs of covid test result for entering into public area. This is obstacle for consumer spending.2.Monkeypox:Global monkeypox number continue to climb and we need to prepare for this.3.Russia and Ukraine:

每日见闻-Daily commentary-2022.7.3 Big events:1.Covid:China total new covid case no. rebounded to 75 in July 2nd from about 38 one day ago. But I expect China government will continue to ease lockdown policy given current economy pressure. Current most influenced covid lockdown policy is required 72hrs covid negative test result for public area. This need to be removed in future.2.Monkeypox:Global total monkeypox case no. continue to climb to close to 6k. There is possibility of outbreak. Similar to Covid, people would need test kit and vaccine to fight with monkeypox. Hospital would need gloves and other medical products to deal with monkeypox. Given our experience on handling covid, we would be able to treat monkeypox more effectively.3.Russia and Ukraine:Russia still pushes forward in Ukraine, but the Himas provided US set some obstacles for Russia. Russians seem already move forward from the war, as they enjoy the life and hangout as normal. So the Russia and Ukraine war is more like the war between Putin and NATO.

每日见闻- Daily Commentary-2022.7.1 Big events:1.Covid:China total new case stay at low level, and this enables China government to further ease lockdown policy.2.Monkeypox:World total monkeypox no. doubled in past week to over 5k. We need to prepare ourself for outbreak of monkeypox.3.Russia and Ukraine:Russia is still pushing forward in Donbus area, however, it seems the situation is deteriorating for Russia since Denmark and Finland applied for joining NATO and NATO approved preliminarily. The original aim for Russia hit Ukraine is to show its musle and let other countries keeps far away from NATO, but it seems the Ukraine action bring opposite result for Russia. This could lead to big scale of war since Russia is threaten by NATO forces around itself and let Putin in a passive position. The only way for Putin to justify his military movement in Ukraine is escalate its fights with NATO to many countries. If big scale war happens, oil and metal price will skyrocketing for sure.