Will current covid outbreak hit Chinese economy again?
New Covid case no. rebounded in China after about two weeks quiet period. Big cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, reacted immediately with alarms of tightening their covid checking frequence requirement to prevent spreadout of covid in these cities. Will this covid outbreak hit Chinese economy again? The short answer is no. Last lockdown cost China about 1.4 trillion RMB GDP, and China can't afford another such hit.What would Chinese government do to fight this covid outbreak? Local government will ask people to stick with 72hrs covid test requirement to enter into public area. This will continue hurt cosumer spending forsure.
Given China is still trying to achieve 5.5% GDP growth this year, where would this growth come from? As we expected before, the best way forChina to achieve its growth target is for government to send money to consumer and stimulate consumer spending.
US government is trying its best to cool down its inflation rate, since May CPI is at 40 yrs high. However, the current inflation is structural pushed inflation. So the better way for US to curb inflation is tolower tariff from China and buy more cheap energy from other countriesbesides increase interest rate.
Big events:
1.Covid:
China total new covid case no. is 38 today, which is still at high range. This would lead to continue requirement of 72hrs of covid test result for entering into public area. This is obstacle for consumer spending.
2.Monkeypox:
Global monkeypox number continue to climb and we need to prepare for this.
3.Russia and Ukraine:
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