Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.12.19 Global environments:Politics:US: internationally US is still pushing for decoupling with China, isolation of Russia and supporting Israel figthing Hamas. The decoupling with China could take for years and raise more dispution with China. The isolation of Russia may end when Russia and Ukraine settle down on their fight. Since US and EU has more However, international critcism are increasing regarding Israeli cause civilian casaulties.

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.12.5 Cycles:Economy:US: Big events:1. Million dollar question:when chinese economy could rebound? The indicators for macro ecnomomy inlucdes: leading economic indicators

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.11.29 Cycles:Macro Economy:China: China is feeling pressure from Zhongzhi and Real Estate sector. It seems Zhongzhi need around 30.1billion USD to save itself, while Chinese real estate sector would need more than 1.2 trillion USD to save the sector. 

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.11.28 Big events:1.Russia-Ukraine conflicts: in order to counteraffensive to NATO expansion in EU, Russia lightning attacked Ukraine to control it. However, the war has been dragging due to supports from NATO. Russia has spent more than 100 billion USD, which is about 5% of its GDP. The war will continue as long as Russia has enough money to support and as long as energy price is high. So if oil price stays high, Russia would have bigger probability to win the war. However, if the nenergy price decreased, there is a good chance that Russia will loose the war. --If Russia win the war, it will have bigger control in EU area and would have better control on energy and food resources and it would need a lot of money to rebuild the Ukraine area. --If Russsia lose the war, Russia may breakdown into more province and have less control on nenergy and food resources. This would be a good news for NATO. But a bad new for China. Since NATO would be able to focusing on fighting with China.2.Hamas-Israel conflict: Israel is attacking Gaza strip due to counteracttact the invasion from Hamas. Since investors are worring about the expension of conflict from Hamas to whole Middle-East, oil has been volatile in last month. There has been chance that Middle East use oil as weapon to attack US. --If Israel continue to attack, Iran and other Middle East countries may get involved and oil price may skyrocketed. --If Israel stop military action, Middle East may stay in peace and oil price may capped by current level. 3.Energy crisis: This round of energy crisis is due to production crunch. Production dropped during covid and then demand trend up higher than expectation. This is why oil price spike and then come down. Question need to answered:How high could the US stock goes to?When would Chinese equity would rebound?

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.11.27 Global environment: Cycles:Economy:Chinese economy: The million dollar question is when Chinese economy could rebound. Economy is driven by many forces. Major forces are supply and demands. Since the link between demands and supply is currency+credit. So currency+credit would be a proxy of economy status. Supply is mainly driven by cyclical forces and shocks. Cyclical forces include 1. technology, 2. facility, 3. worker, 4. material, 5. other resources; Shockes include: 1. natural disasters, 2. pandemic， 3. war, 4. political conflicts;The normal indicator for economy is GDP.