Daily commentary-2022.6.6 1.Covid:There are signs of new breakout of Covid in Shanghai recently and many communities are lockdown again. Pls avoid travel to Shanghai recently. We hope authorities will not ban economy again, since the society is very fragile economically and mentally now. 2.Monkeypox:China hasn't reported any monkeypox case yet. But there would be some after we reopen international flight. So people who haven't vaccined for small pox yet should get small pox vaccine before international flight open up.3.Russia and Ukraine:Ukraine took back part of Donbas city. It seems Germany and some countries hope Russia could conque Ukraine soon, so world could go back to orderly status with cheap commodities. Not sure whether Ukraine could defeat Russia under this situation.4.Food crisis:More countries ban wheat export given tight food supply and make food crisis worse. Fertilizer price continue to grow due to lack of supply from Russia.5.Energy crisis:Coal price increased more than 50% this year globally due to increase demand on coal on back of lack of natural gas and high oil price. However, tight coal supply can't be settled soon due to lack of oil for transport coal to consumer.6.US economy:US 10 yrs bond yield increase more than 5% this week and make it closer to 3%. As US employment number is strong, people are expecting Fed to hike interest rate soon for 50bps. On the other hand, international companies such as Telsa and Apple felt the headwind from global economy slow down. They are starting to consider layoff to prepare themselves for these headwind. Then we may see the economy slow down spiral happen in Q4 2022 in US.7.China economy:As there are rumors that Shanghai lockdown is coming back, it will put burden on economy for sure. If Shanghai lockdown happen again in June, we may face the biggest economic recession in Q2 2022. So it is better not happen. There are some sector with certainty in China, which is infrastructure. If China consumption get worse, Chinese government will put more money to infrustructure sector for sure.8.Venture capital:As global stock market took hits recently, this casued many startup companies' devalued recently. This is a bad new for venture capital funds, since they may face lower IRR and harder to close new fund. However, given cyclical of global economy, it is good opportunity for fund swith sufficient cash to invest.

Daily commentary-2022.6.4 Very sad for the train accident today and caused 5 death. Sincere condolences to them.1.Covid:China is moving over Covid as business are opening up, however, the speed is still slow in Beijing since covid-zero still in place. One simple example is that it took about 30mins(used to be 1 min) to find a restuarant which were still open and cooked fresh dished for lunch today. Given the consumption is about 56% of total Chinese GDP, we need to open up local retail business asap to boost economy.2.Monkeypox:Total case no. continue to increase.3.Russia and Ukraine:One thing need to notice is news war and internet war are the key battle field for modern war. If some one want to get into war, they would better get themselves prepared for news war and internet war.4.Food crisis:Food price in China is raising slowly. Thanks for cheap pork price which account for 60% of total animal protein consumption in China. However, pork price is already on the rising. What will happen if food price increase over 20% in China this year? We already saw more than 10% price increase on eggs and more than 20% price increase on fresh vegetables. More price increase may be on the way.5.Energy crisis:Although OPEC plan to increase production, crude price raise strongly showing distrust on OPEC's fufilment. There are rumors that Russia put a Chinese speaking manager to marketing role and people guess Russia will sell more oil to China. I would suggest China cust the price to 50% of current market price and buy more to lower inflation pressure.6.US economy:US economy is still strong and their GDP growth may outpace Chinese GDP this year.7.China economy:Given retails are still lockdown in Beijing and Shanghai, economy recover still need more time which we really don't have now.

Daily commentary-2022.6.3 Today is Chinese Dragon Boat Festival. The fifth lunar month is considered an unlucky month. People believed that natural disasters and illnesses are common in the fifth month. To get rid of the misfortune, people would put calamus, Artemisia, pomegranate flowers, Chinese ixora and garlic above the doors on the fifth day of the fifth month. Since the shape of calamus forms like a sword and with the strong smell of the garlic, it is believed that they can remove the evil spirits. Hope the Dragon Boat Festival bring us all fortune and happyness.1.Covid:New case no. continue to drop in China. All lockdowns in China are being lifted. But it will take some time for people get back to normal life and work. Just like you lie on bed for too long and you need time to get used to how to walk before you can run. This period may take up to 1-2 months.2.Monkeypox:One thing need to notice is that for areas where people can make money from providing vaccines and tests to governments, the Covid may last longer than other areas don't have those. Not sure this hold for other pendemic or disease. This causes my concern that if some people can make fortune from the outbreak of Monkeypox, will the possibility of outbreak of monkeypox increase?3.Russia and Ukraine:The war has last for 100 days now. Russia spend more than USD 100billion on it. Ukraine lost more. We need to ask that who is the winner of this war? So far we saw US made money from this war and also drew EU closer. Current war is a long time war and would dramatically lower Russian economy growth.4.Food crisis:China said it have good summer wheat harvest and boost the confidence of food safety. But food price is also increase in China.5.Energ crisis:OPEC agree to increase oil supply further. But the supply is still tight and price will not drop soon.6.Climate change:Climate change is causing more hurricane and more rainfalls in coming year.7.US economy:US added more new job than expectation in May and it is a indication of strong US economy. JP Morgan said people's spending may last for 6-9 month, meaning US economy will keep strong for this full year. Given good economy, US central bank wants to hike rate to curb inflation.8.China economy:Beijing and Shanghai detailed its fiscal stimulus plan. It is noticed that real estate become the method to boost economy again national wide.

Daily commentary-2022.5.31 1.Covid:As Beijing and Shanghai work & life back to normal, I saw jump starts of economic activities in Beijing today. People are running fast to get the lost business back. Total new covid case no. increased due to new cases in Beijing. But no more lockdown expected due to economic pressure. Also many cities will cancel current free covid-test service and will charge fees due to big cost burden.2.Monkeypox:Total monkeypox case no. is still growing.3.Russia and Ukraine:Russia continue to push forward in Donbas area of Severodonetsk specifically. US Biden said US will not provide Rocket system which may enable Ukraine to attack Russia homeland. So not sure what kind of Rocket will be provide by US to Ukraine. EU agreed on the sanction against Russia to cut Russia crude purchase by 75%, which is about USD150million per day. Russia haven't announced counter sanction terms to EU yet. EU plan to ban 90% of its current imported Russian oil.I think it is may be the time for Russia, Ukraine and NATO to carry out the talk to end this war now, given the huge costs to all parties as well as to the world.4.Food crisis:After India banned wheat exports, more than 18 other countries also announced food exports restrictions. This will make African and Middle East facing bigger food shortage.5.Energy crisis:As EU banned 75% of its Russia crude oil import, Russia will have to sell these oil cheap to somewhere. I suggest China take these oils and pay RMB to support Chinese economy. This will also benefit the whole world.6.Electricity shortage:Japan said they may face electricity shortage this summer and run full clock to find solution for this.7.US economy:Fed Chairman Powell met Biden in Oval Office today, Biden said he will support Fed to curb the inflation. Market is excepting 50 and 50 bps rate hike in June/July and Sep/Oct. US 10 yr yield moved up today. US house price hit a new high as its Mar price increase 21.2% yoy.8.China economy:More fiscal stimulus are announced today and this will boost China economy for sure. China May PMI stood at 48.4 which is higher than 42.7 in April.9.Climate change:Scientist found new component in air recently and this maybe due to pollution.

Daily commentary-2022.5.26 1.Covid:There are news that Haikou city eased itscovid policy that no covid test result needed anymore to get-in or out airport. Also airlines are talking about open more international flights. These a sign of easing potential easing covid policy in China. By the way, total new covid cases no. continue to dropas figure below.2.Monkeypox:Governments continue to prepare for potential outbreak of Monkeypox.3.Russia and Ukraine:Russia continues with their military action in Ukraine with little progress. Ukraine said they will never give up their home land. Russian flush attack turned into a long term war and this war will cost Russia more than their expectation. 4.Food crisis:As fertilizer prices continue to climb,food shortage will continue to get serious in 2022. Russia is considering to allow Ukraine export grains exchange forlift santions on Russia.5.Climate changes:It estimated this years summer may be hotter than last year. This mean more electricity usage and less food production.6.China economy:Even with more than massive attendances vido conference call Chinese gov held yesterday, stock market didn't react much today. Market is waiting for clear instruction and actions from government.JP Morgan estimated 2Q Chinese GDP would be -5.4% mom, or about 1.46 trillion RMB GDP lose from last quarter. This will make 2022 full year Chinese GDP around 3.7%. This would be the second lowest since 1990.{lamp/}