Daily commentary- 每日见闻-2022.07.23 This week different countries experienced different market movements. US investors are moving from risk-free assets to risky assets. Chinese and European investors are still seeking risk-free assets due to loom forecasts on economy.It is very interesting to see how historically investor's appetite change over time based on different market situation. The basic rules are:1.When investor is bearish about economy outlook, investor tend to: a.save more cash; b.sell some overpriced asset and expect to buy back at low price; c.lower their expected price of assets. These caused:a.demands on assets decreased; b.money is less available on market; c.people can't make money on their assets; d.sell pressure for assets increased. e.assets price decrease; 2.When investor is boolish about economy outlook, investor tend to: a.save less cash; b.buy more cheap asset and expect to sell at higher price; c.increase their expected price of assets. These caused:a.demandson assets increased; b.money are more available on marketl; c.people could make money on their assets; d.buy forces for assets increased; e.assets price increase;Overall, investor's forecasts on economy is important factor for investor making decision.Other factores investor will consider regarding their investments:a.Big events:1.Covid:Total new covid case no. is rebounding in China. According to current Chinese Covid policy, local communite would be lockdown if any Covid case founded. Current Covid cases are founded mainly in tier 2 and tier 3 cities, such as Guangxi, Gansu, Sichuan, Sichuan, etc. These areas' retailswould be affected by covid. Manufactures would not be affected much. I am expecting more easing on current covid lockdown policy willhappen soon.

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2022.7.20 China is still in process of economy rebounding. US is at the turning point of from fast economy rebound to curbing inflation. UK is also at theturning point of from fast economy rebound to curbing inflation. Europe is also at the turning point from economy recovery to curbing inflation.US:Politics: US president Biden continue under pressure of high inflation, climate change and challenges from China and Russia;Economy: US economy is expected to grow by 2% yoy in 2nd quarter 2022, which is in the middle of G20 GDP growth rate;Culture: Citizen's view are more divided in

Daily commentary-每日见闻-2022.7.18 China is still in process of covid recovering. US maybe at the turning point of economy recovering to economy slow down. Europe already in economy shrink.My monitor on major countries:US:Politics: Biden is facing mid-term election. The biggest pressure on him now are high inflation and climate change. Biden are meeting energyproducers and are calling other goods producers to ask for production increase to ease local inflation. US inflation hitting 40 yrs high as In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent).Economy:Culture:Health:Technology:China:Politics:Economy:Culture:Health:Technology:

When will Chinese stock rebound?-每日见闻-Daily Newsletter-2022.7.8 China economy is bottomed.However, when will stock rebound?Stock price mainly driven by four factors:1.risk adjusted required return;2.company expected net profit;3.people's expectation on making money;4.totay money supply in equity market;In order to judge when stock may risk or fall, we need to review above factors, we should be able to get a better view onstock market situations.1.Risk adjusted required return: If money is expesive and market is risky, people will ask for higher return on equity investment to compensate the risk they afforded. If money is cheap and market is not risky, people are ok with lower return on equity investment and potentailly more money will come to equity market to play;Regarding money price, the normal parameter is interest rate. Interest rate is set by central bank of a country.There are also other indicators people use to evaluate the cost of money, these indicators include intra bank interest rate.When money get into stock market, it will boost the equity price.

Will China save US high inflation by increasing exports to US?-每日见闻-Daily commentary-2022.7.5 The short answer is yes. Lower price Chinese goods would help us lower its inflation. However, the effect of this on US inflation is limited given current structural misplacement of supply chain.The reaction of cheap Chinese cargo enters into US market would like:1. helped US lower domestic goods; 2. China purchases more material and push up commodities prices; 3. more shipping demands push up shipping cost; 4. Chinese goods prices in US start to rise after several month;So we can see the lift of US tariff on eliminate US inflation is limited to several months. However, global supply chain will not be recovered shortly due to lack of capacity investment.US need to:1. invest more on supply chain; 2. help Russia and Ukraine cease fire soon.China need to:1. drop current covid control; 2.send money to residents; 3.spend more money on supply chain;