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2023-05-11
Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.5.10
Global environment:Politics:US:China:EU:Japan:India:UK:Canada:Canada expeled a Chinese diploma due to threaten Canadian citizens. China did the same with Canadian diploma in equal treatment. The tension between Canada and China is esscalating quickly. This may affect the total relationship between two countires.Economy:US:US inflation lower than expectation indicates inflation is cooling down in US as well as globally. This is on the track allow Fed to pause their rate hike. So we can come to the conclusion that Fed rate hike cycle is almost over and we may get into rate cut cycle later. Historically, rate could keep at the peak level for about 1 year depends on economy growth. When Fed starts to cut rate, this would make Bond and Equity attractive again and may boost Bond and Equity price. Also this may push up commodity prices and house price. For FX, US dollar would lower in spot but higher in forward rates. China:China real estate market is increasing marginally in May. China auto market is almost flat. Chinese service market is picking up quickly. Overall, China economy is still on the track of rebounding. This trend may continue till end of this year without extra stimulus.EU:Japan:India:UK:Canda:Culture:Technology:Education:Medi-care:Military:US:US keeps increasing military spending.China:EU:Japan:India:UK:Canda:
2023年05月11日
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2023-05-08
Daily commentary-每日见闻-2023.5.8
Global environment:Politics:Economy:Culture:Education:Medi-care:Technology:Military:Big events:
2023年05月08日
13 阅读
0 评论
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2023-04-25
交易项目-Trading Pipeline-2023.4.25-钠电负极材料生产商
钠电负极材料生产商1.行业前景钠离子电池由于低廉的成本(锂离子电池成本的1/3),使得钠离子电池在很多场景将取代锂离子电池。2023年全球钠离子电池市场规模在40亿元左右,预计市场每年保持23%以上的增长。2.公司投资亮点:硬碳作为负极材料更具成本、性能、安全等比较优势,且钠电爆发在即,拥有研发和产能双重先发优势标的非常稀缺;行业内首个建成2000吨级并满产的硬碳量产线;技术指标领先同行业竞争对手3-5年;公司产品系列最全:从锂电硬碳到钠电硬碳, 比容量范围从 300 -650mAh/g,为全球产品系列最全的公司;全国产品性能最佳,完全可替代进口并量产;作为极具竞争力的稀缺硬碳标的,先后获得鹏辉、蜂巢、雄韬、达晨等头部产业资本战略投资,并获得宁德、比亚迪等大厂供应商准入;公司销售额和净利润处于快速增长阶段;3.估值逻辑和合理性:本轮公司投前估值25亿,约为2024年利润的20倍PE,或者2.4倍PS;本轮融资4亿;根据产能建设情况,保守预计2024~2026实现营收分别约为:10.4亿、18.7亿及27亿,分别实现净利润约为1.25亿、2.43及4.05亿;目前公司估值25亿,23年全年预计实现2亿营收,2000万净利润;4.可比公司:孚能、华宇新能;5.上市确定性;公司计划2025年申报科创板;6.截止日期;2023年6月31日,计划7月底交割;7.现有投资机构:鹏辉、蜂巢、雄韬、达晨等;联系方式:何志强Bradley He手机: +86 13671273860微信: bradleyhe微信小程序:AA投资交易Email: zhiqiangho@hotmail.com
2023年04月25日
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2023-04-18
Daily commentary-每日评论-2023.4.18
Global environment:Politics:Overall, US try to isolate China and crash Russia. EU minize the conflict with China. APEC coutries moved close to US and increase competition with China.China:Externally,EU:Externally, EU preparing for a united policy on China from its members.UK:Internally Prime Minister Sunank is under investigation on his false financial filing. If he conviced wrong doing, he will face pressure to step down.Economy:Overall global economy is still strong even Fed rate hike loomed the economy growth forecast.China:Chinese economy expanded @ 4.5% rate yoy, which is higher than economist expectation of 4%. Agriculture industry and service industry increased more than expected. Manufacturing industry also grew strongly.UK:UK wage continue to rise in the three months February. It rose 5.9%yoy, above the expectation of 5.1%. Finance sector and construction sector increased the most. After deducting inflation,real wage growth was negative.Culture:US:Internally US people more prefer remote working.Milleniums enjoys life more.China:Internally Chinese gov boosts national culture confidence. Elevated the good traditional merits, such as respect old and respect others. Chinese milleniums more oriented towards cyber culture, which is selfish, cute, enjoy life.Education:China:Internally, Chinese education resources are more concentrated to rich classes.Technology:China:China is focusing on leverage latest digital-tech to increase the productivity of all industry.This would need a lot of CPU and GPUs.
2023年04月18日
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2023-04-17
Daily Commentary-每日见闻-2023.04.17
Global environment:Politics:US:Externally,US is luring Vietnam to enhance military ties to curb growth of China. Internally Desantis try to make a case on abortion to winsupports in GOP. Trump deal with court on potential charges. Biden pushed through several acts he signed to try to get more supports.China:Externally,China is ehancing relationship with France and Brazil to confront competition from US. Internally, China focused on EU:EU is seeking Chinese and US supports to end Russia-Ukraine conflicts.Japan:Japan is standing stronger against China on the rise of Chinese military threats.Germany:German government is underpressure to decoupling from China.India:India is avoiding to critisize Russia and curbing Chinaese growth and military threats.UK:Internally, UK government faced strikes from labor union calling for pay increase.Canada:Trudu faced investigation on accepting election donation from China.South Korea:Internally, South Korea government faced protests againstUS surveilience on South Korea.Markets Overview:VC:VC investment is getting to a higher level from 2022.
2023年04月17日
21 阅读
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