Daily commentary-2022.5.20

Covid:
1.More cases found in Beijing, we expect stricter lockdown will happen here.This may extend the period of lockdown in Beijing and cause more economy losses. Previously we estimate it will cause Beijing of about 0.09 trillion RMB for about 50 days and now this number may go bigger together with longer lockdown in Beijing.
2.New cases no. in China continue to decline, this is a good sign for national wide easing current lockdown.
3.Outbreak of new disease, monkeypox, is deserved a clost monitor, since it is fatal desease. Lucky, it is not an air spread one. It need close touch to infect.

Russia and Ukraine:
Russia clamed success on Mariupol in Ukraine, but the cost is so high, above USD 100 billon, which is about 6% of Russian GDP. And the war cost about another USD 100 billion or 50% of GDP of Ukraine. So the cost of the war is really high.

Food crisis:
As Russia and Ukraine conflict continue, Russian and Ukraine grains are not availe and this caused thefood crisis for middle east and potential threats to whole globe.