Global environments:
Politics:
Big events:
Palestine-Israel conflict: it has been about 2 weeks since the conflict start and Israel pledged a revenge to Gaza area. Iran is supporting Hamas and US is supporting Israel. So it is the conflict between Iran and US actually. A wide spread conflict in Middle East would mean low oil supply volume and high oil price. While US and EU as well as other energy import countries are suffering from high oil price. It is in US interest to lower oil price. So US and EU will try their best to control this conflict and keep oil price low. So I don't think oil price will go above to 100 level or higher. If the oil price do go that high level, Fed will continue to hike rates to cool downn the inflation, so the oil demands will come down. Oil price will fall eventually.
Russia-Ukraine conflict: is has been about 1.6 yrs for Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia started the conflict aiming to fight back on the potential threats from NATO expending to Ukraine. It was expected to be a lightning attack. However, it turned out to a long-lasting military action for Russia to fight with Ukraine. Two main reasons contribute to this long-term war. First, Russia is over-estimated it military strength and under-estimated Ukrainian military strength. Second, Ukraine get support from US and EU for more than 200billion USD, which is almost the same amount Russia put on war. War is the mixed result of military, economy, politics factors. For military, it seems Russsia has advantages on miliarty training and commanding. For economy, it seems US and EU have advantages. For politics, it seems Ukraine has advantages. So overall, it seems Russia may lost this war and come back to negotiation table and Putin step down. After this war, Russia would be further weakened and may not be able to protect its homeland eventually and need to open further up its economy. JVs would goes to Russia to run the business and make commodities price go lower.
Cycles:
Interest rate cycles:
Commodity cycles:
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