Global Environment:

Politics:

United States: The Justice Department's investigation into Trump is believed to be well-founded, and the Justice Department is still actively seeking to expedite access to documents to determine whether Trump is a threat to national security. Biden visited the disaster-stricken people in Florida and said that he would mobilize resources to restore life as soon as possible. Relevant people said that the damage caused by the hurricane exceeded 100 billion US dollars. A U.S. court ruled unlawful an Obama-era law protecting illegal immigrants, putting them at higher risk. On the international front, the United States expressed dissatisfaction with the view that the OPEC+ organization's reduction of oil production is not good for the world. The U.S. believes Ukraine was behind the murder of Putin's best friend's daughter. Still, the United States continues to increase aid to Ukraine.
China: China is still stepping up preparations for the convening of the 20th National Congress to create a safe and united environment for the 20th National Congress. People are still immersed in the festive atmosphere of the National Day. Internationally, China is continuing to try to deepen its cooperation with Europe and countries along the Belt and Road to resist the increasing repression in the United States.
EU: The EU is still looking for alternatives to energy shortages. Initial investigations in Sweden confirmed that the explosion caused the damage to the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Internationally, the European Union agreed to limit the price of Russian oil, which will start in November.
UK: There are concerns within the UK about whether the financial system is in trouble, and support for the new prime minister is falling. Internationally, the UK is trying to stabilize the confidence of international investment institutions.
Brazil: Preliminary results for Brazil's presidential election show conservative candidate Lula ahead of the incumbent. But the final election won't come until October 30. It is widely believed that if Lula is elected, Brazil's policies will be more conservative.
Iran: Demonstrations in Iran have killed people, the mood of the masses is still angry, and the violence is still escalating.
Thailand: Shooting in Thailand has left many children dead.

Economy:

United States: Affected by OPEC's oil production cuts, oil prices cannot fall in the short term, and the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates continues to increase, which may eventually lead to a recession in the US economy. The U.S. trade deficit has declined recently. Biden said that in order to lower oil prices, the United States will further release oil reserves, but many people advise against doing so, because the United States' oil reserves are already at historically low levels. The U.S. waived sanctions on Venezuela, which could increase oil exports from Venezuela to the U.S.
China: The scissor gap between the Fed's rate hike and China's rate cut has put enormous pressure on the RMB exchange rate. In the next year, it is foreseeable that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates to 4.5%, while China may cut interest rates to 3%, so that the RMB may further depreciate. So foreign investors may further reduce their investment positions in China. As China's interest rates fall, China's inflation rate will rise further, bringing uncertainty to the economic recovery.
EU: The EU expects that the energy shortage will continue in the next 1-2 years, which will deal a big blow to the EU economy. The EU is trying to add bases in other countries to make up for the economic losses in the region. The probability of a weakening EU economy is slowly accumulating.
UK: The UK's financial markets have become more vulnerable due to a margin call for UK pensions after a few days of sharp fluctuations in sterling and government bond rates. It can be seen that the new prime minister does not fully understand the financial market, and may just be a politician.
OPEC: OPEC announced an oil production cut of 2 million barrels per day, emphasizing that it was in response to reduced demand. But many see it as a response to a joint European and American cap on Russian oil prices.
United Nations: The United Nations has called on central banks around the world to stop raising interest rates, as continued rapid rate hikes could tip the world into recession.

Culture:

United States: Americans are increasingly uncertain about the future, and their culture is becoming more conservative.
China: Affected by the epidemic, people's pressure is increasing, and it is easy to be ignited by some events, such as the recent food safety issue.
EU: Dissatisfaction with the government is growing due to concerns about the cost of living and energy shortages.
UK: People are questioning the ability of the new government to govern.
Iran: The culture of violence pervades the hearts of more people.

Technology:

United States: The endless frontier bills and chip bills in the United States are constantly being implemented, constantly cutting off China's ability to obtain cutting-edge technologies.
China: China still has a long way to go in terms of chips, AI, and new energy to catch up.
South Korea: Samsung is trying to seize the commanding heights of chip manufacturing and win the competition with Taiwan.

Educate:

United States: Due to a system error, Northeastern University Law School sent admission notices to more than 1,000 people by mistake.
China: Due to the impact of the epidemic, many universities still use online teaching.

Medical:

United States: The United States cuts off the industrial chain of China's drug research and development on behalf of the United States, and allows biomedical research and development and manufacturing to return to the United States.
China: China further reduces medical costs through centralized procurement.

Big event:

Covid-19: The number of new crown cases in my country has remained stable, and the epidemic prevention in many places has been upgraded, which has brought certain pressure to the economy.
Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine rejects peace talks with Russia. Russia faces the difficulty of not having soldiers on the front lines. Western sanctions against Russia have intensified.
Energy crisis: OPEC cuts crude oil production, so that the price of crude oil will remain above 80 in the next year, which will greatly benefit the producers of crude oil, natural gas and coal.
Food Crisis: Famine in Africa deepens.

Financial market:

Foreign exchange: Affected by the Fed's interest rate hike, the US dollar will further strengthen in the next year, which will be a big blow to the global economy. Continue to be bullish on the dollar.
Bonds: Affected by the continuous interest rate hikes by central banks around the world, the yields of national government bonds continue to rise. Yields on U.S. Treasuries are forecast to still have room to rise.
Commodities: Energy prices will remain high in the next year, the demand for base metals will slowly decline, and prices will be under pressure. Gold and silver prices will be relatively firm, acting as a safe haven. Agricultural prices will remain high and volatile. Affected by the economic slowdown, ocean freight rates are expected to decline.
Equities: As central banks raise rates, equities will continue to pull back until central banks stop raising rates. Credit Suisse should not go bankrupt. Occidental oil, which Buffett bought, is a good bet, but it's too expensive right now.

Overall, G7 rates will continue to rise until signs of a recession are more evident. G7 stock will remain under pressure. China's stock market depends on the strength of policy support in the later period.

全球环境：

政治：

美国：美国国内人们认为司法部对特朗普的调查是有根据的，美国司法部仍在积极需求加速对获得文件的审阅权，以确定特朗普是否威胁到国家安全。拜登走访佛州受灾群众并表示调动资源尽快恢复生活，有关人士表示此次飓风造成的损失超1000亿美元。美国法院认定奥巴马时期的保护非法移民的一项法案违法，使得非法移民面临更高的风险。国际方面美国认为欧佩克+组织减产石油对全球不利，表示了不满。美国认为是乌克兰策划了对普京好友女儿的谋杀。尽管如此，美国继续增加对乌克兰的援助。
中国：国内仍在加紧准备20大的召开，为20大营造安全，团结的环境。人们仍然沉浸在国庆节的节日气氛中。国际上中国在继续尝试加深同欧洲及一带一路国家的合作，来抵御来在美国越来越多的压制。
欧盟：欧盟内部仍然在为能源的短缺寻找替代方案。瑞典初步调查证实是爆炸造成了北溪天然气管道的损坏。国际方面欧盟同意对俄罗斯石油限价，限价从11月开始。
英国：英国内部人们开始担心金融体系是否会出现问题，对新任首相的支持率也在下降。国际上英国在尝试稳定国际投资机构的信心。
巴西：巴西总统初步竞选结果显示保守派候选人Lula领先于现任总统。但是最终选举要到10月30日才有结果。人们普遍认为如果Lula当选，则巴西的政策将更加趋于保守。
伊朗：伊朗国内的游行示威已经造成人员死亡，群众的情绪仍然愤怒，暴力还在升级。
泰国：泰国国内发生枪击，造成不少儿童死亡。

经济：

美国：受欧佩克石油减产影响，油价短期内无法下跌，美联储继续升息的概率不断增加，最终可能导致美国经济的衰退。美国近期贸易赤字有所降低。拜登说为了降低油价，美国将进一步释放石油储备，但是很多人建议不要这么做，因为美国的石油储备已经处于历史低位了。美国豁免了对委内瑞拉的制裁，这样可以增加从委内瑞拉到美国的石油出口量。
中国：美联储的加息和中国的降息的剪刀差给人民币汇率带来巨大的压力。在未来一年可以预见美联储还会继续加息到4.5%，而中国可能会降息到3%，这样人民币可能进一步贬值。所以国外投资者可能会进一步减少在中国的投资头寸。随着中国利率的下降，中国通货膨胀率将进一步上升，给经济的复苏带来不确定性。
欧盟：欧盟预计未来1-2年能源仍将持续短缺，这将对欧盟经济造成很大打击。欧盟在尝试在其他国家增设基地，来弥补本地区的经济损失。欧盟经济走弱的概率增在缓慢积累。
英国：受几天英镑和国债利率的大幅波动，英国养老金出现了追加保证金的需求，让英国的金融市场变得更加脆弱。可以看出来新的首相对金融市场并不是完全懂，可能只是政治人士。
欧佩克：欧佩克宣布200万桶/天的石油减产，并强调这是对于需求减少的应对。但是很多人认为这是对于欧美联合设定俄罗斯石油价格上限的回应。
联合国：联合国呼吁全球央行停止加息，因为继续快速加息可能会导致全球陷入经济衰退。

文化：

美国：美国人对于未来的不确定性在增加，文化趋于保守。
中国：受疫情影响，人们压力在不断增加，容易被一些事件点燃，例如近期的食品安全问题。
欧盟：出于对生活成本和能源短缺的担心，人们对于政府的不满在不断增加。
英国：人们在质疑新政府的执政能力。
伊朗：暴力文化在更多人心中普及。

科技：

美国：美国的无尽前沿法案和芯片等法案在不断落实，不断的切断中国获取尖端技术的能力。
中国：中国在芯片、AI、新能源方面仍然有很长的路需要追赶。
韩国：三星在极力抢占芯片制造的制高点，赢得跟台湾的竞争。

教育：

美国：美国东北大学法学院由于系统错误，给1000多人误发录取通知书。
中国：由于疫情影响，多个大学仍采用线上授课。

医疗：

美国：美国切断中国代美国研发药物的产业链，让生物医药研发和制造回流美国。
中国：中国通过集采，进一步降低医疗成本。

大事件：

新冠：我国的新冠病例数保持稳定，多地防疫升级，给经济带来一定压力。
俄罗斯-乌克兰：乌克兰拒绝跟俄罗斯的和谈。俄罗斯面临没有士兵上前线的困难。西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁加剧。
能源危机：欧佩克减产原油，使得未来1年内原油价格都会维持在80以上，极大的利好原油、天燃气、煤炭的生产商。
食物危机：非洲的饥荒进一步加剧。

金融市场：

外汇：受美联储加息影响，未来1年内美元将进一步走强，这对全球经济是不小的打击。继续看好做多美元。
债券：受全球央行持续加息影响，各国国债的收益率不断上升。预测美国国债的收益率仍然有上升空间。
大宗商品：能源价格将在未来1年维持高位，基本金属需求量在缓慢下降，价格会承压。金银价格会相对坚挺，充当避险天堂。农产品价格将保持高位震荡。受经济放缓影响，海运费预计将有所回调。
股票：随着各国央行的加息，股票会继续回调，直到央行停止加息。瑞信应该不会破产。巴菲特买入的西方石油是很好的标的，但是现在太贵了。

总的来看，G7利率将继续上行，直到经济衰退的迹象更加明显。G7股票将继续承压。中国的股市取决于后期的政策支持力度。